Democrats Gain Ground in Washington Legislature

Buoyant Democrats are on course to strengthen their grip on power in the Washington state House.

But the caucus is poised to lose its longest-serving member, and a series of intraparty battles could unseat incumbents in both legislative chambers. Meanwhile, several incumbent Republicans are staving off stiff challenges. Numerous races deserve a close eye through the week as votes continue to be counted.

Democrats are seeking to widen their majorities in Olympia. They already run the show with a 59-39 majority in the House and 30-19 in the Senate. But this election will help them inch closer to a two-thirds supermajority, at least in the lower chamber. All 98 House seats and 24 of the 49 Senate positions were on the ballot this year.

The magic number for the Democrats to get a two-thirds supermajority of 66 seats in the House is seven pickups from Republicans. And Democratic political consultant Dean Nielsen expects his party to flip at least seven state House seats.

“What should I wear for the funeral for the Washington State Republican Party?” he said in a text message.

On the other side, state Republican Party Chair Jim Walsh sees the Democrats picking up a couple, but falling short of the seven they’d need.

Statewide, more than 2 million ballots have been counted. More will be tallied in the coming days, so results could change. 

Potential democratic gains

House Democrats fancy a sweep in southwest Washington, where four incumbent Republican lawmakers trail their Democratic challengers in the early vote tally. 

In the 17th District, Republican Reps. Kevin Waters of Stevenson and David Stuebe of Washougal are losing to Democrats Ben Christly and Diana Perez, both of Vancouver, respectively. Next door, in the 18th District, GOP Reps. Stephanie McClintock and John Ley, both of Vancouver, are behind Democrats Randi Knott and Deken Letinich.

Democrats may have solidified their turn of the 26th District away from split representation. Renee Hernandez Greenfield is ahead of Katy Cornell, a Republican pastor who found herself in hot water recently over inflammatory comments in resurfaced videos of sermons. Hernandez Greenfield is up nearly 10 points on Cornell.

The initial results for those five races were mostly expected among pundits. But others indicate nearly the worst night Republicans in the state could imagine when it comes to the Legislature. 

GOP Rep. Michael Keaton is trailing David Berg in a tight race in the Puyallup-area 25th District. Keaton’s seatmate, Rep. Cyndy Jacobsen, has a narrow lead of 109 votes on Jenn Marie Strickling.

In a state Senate race that represents a rare opportunity for a Democratic pickup this cycle, Carolina Mejia, the Democrat, is leading incumbent Republican Drew MacEwen in the 35th District, which covers Mason County as well as parts of Thurston and Kitsap counties. Mejia has a 3-point lead, which amounts to 1,380 votes of 43,000 counted so far. Republican state representatives in this district have narrow leads.

In the Yakima Valley’s 14th District, two incumbent Republicans, Gloria Mendoza and Deb Manjarrez, are trailing their Democratic challengers, Chelsea Dimas and Ezequiel Morfin. They’re each losing by over 10 percentage points in the Latino-heavy district.

Republican state Rep. Brian Burnett is showing weakness in the 12th District, which covers Chelan County and crosses the Cascades into eastern King and Snohomish counties. He trails Stacy Willoughby, his Democratic opponent, by 3 points on election night. His seatmate, GOP Rep. Mike Steele, meanwhile, is up handily.

Democrats appeared poised to hang onto the Senate seat in the 42nd District in Whatcom County. Democrat Michael Shepard, a port commissioner, has a comfortable lead over Republican psychologist Erika Creydt in the race to replace Democratic Sen. Sharon Shewmake. 

Walsh says his party isn’t giving up on this race, despite Creydt facing a nearly 13-point deficit.

Democrats challenge incumbents

Only 17 votes separated Rep. Amy Walen of Kirkland and Jessica Forsythe of Redmond in the August primary. Tuesday’s results showed Forsythe up over Walen by 1,051 votes, with more than 25,000 counted in the 48th District. Forsythe is running to Walen’s left after the incumbent voted against the high-earners income tax the Legislature approved this year.

Kelabe Tewolde, a progressive Democrat, defeated Rep. Sharon Tomikos Santos, who has been in the Legislature since 1999 and chairs the powerful House Education Committee. She trails Tewolde by 24.5% on election night, likely an insurmountable margin.

Despite a drunk driving arrest in August, progressive Democrat Krista Perez is leading by over 3 percentage points in her bid to unseat Democratic Rep. Melanie Morgan in Pierce County’s 29th District. Morgan, like Walen, has faced criticism from progressives for voting against the income tax.

It’s a tight race in the 32nd District in north King and south Snohomish counties, where Democratic Sen. Jesse Salomon aims to retain his seat against progressive state Rep. Cindy Ryu. Ryu leads by 352 votes, or less than 1 point.

Longtime Rep. Gerry Pollet, a Seattle Democrat, had a whopping 30-point lead over former federal prosecutor Will Dreher, a fellow Democrat who ran on a platform focused on regulating artificial intelligence. Pollet declared victory Tuesday night. 

“Thank you to every one of my constituents who took the time to speak to me on their doorsteps, at the grocery store, or at the park, to tell me what the legislature can do for them,” Pollet said in a statement. “I’ll be taking your stories with me, and I want to keep hearing from you. See you again soon.”

Rep. Tarra Simmons, the first formerly incarcerated Washington state lawmaker, leads fellow Democrat Daria Ilgen by fewer than 500 votes with nearly 49,000 counted. Simmons has been embroiled in various ethics complaints in the past year.

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