Washington’s grocery prices could grow more than 16% if President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs are allowed to continue, predicts a new state report.

If a family now pays $6,000 per year on groceries, their spending could increase to about $7,000 in 2027 if the president’s signature import taxes remain in effect, according to the analysis prepared by the state’s Office of Financial Management.

Gov. Bob Ferguson shared the findings this week during a press conference at hunger relief organization Northwest Harvest’s south Seattle community market. “There is no scenario in which these tariffs are good for Washingtonians, and don’t be fooled by the administration, Washington’s working families and businesses and the state will bear the cost of these tariffs,” says Ferguson.

The 65-page report—which Ferguson calls “nonpartisan” despite being prepared by the Democratic governor’s budget office—determined the president’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs could hurt Washington in a number of ways.

Nearly 32,000 jobs could be at risk. Agriculture and aerospace industries could be hit hardest in a border state whose economy is heavily reliant on international trade. Washington could lose $2.2 billion in general fund revenue by 2029 if the tariffs remain in place for the next four years. And economic growth in the state over that same period could fall as much as 1.8% each quarter.

Consumers could feel the impacts far beyond the grocery store, the report states. Clothing and shoe prices could rise 7% within a year. Used car prices are projected to jump by around 23%, while new cars could cost 6% to 8% more. Electricity and natural gas costs will also increase.

But these projections are far from certain as Trump is embroiled in a court fight to maintain the tariffs that are the centerpiece of his economic agenda.

A federal appeals court last week ruled he didn’t have the authority to impose most of them. The administration asked the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn that ruling.

Washington Democratic U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell has led the charge to reassert the role of Congress in setting trade policy in light of Trump’s tariff plans, to no avail.

Trump says tariffs are necessary to address steep trade deficits that threaten the country’s national security. For months, markets have been wracked by on-again-off-again levies that have repeatedly been announced, pulled back, and revised.

The chair of Washington’s Republican Party turned the blame for economic turmoil onto the governor, who signed off on major tax increases this year to address a multibillion-dollar budget shortfall. “The budget crisis will be Bob Ferguson’s fault. Not Donald Trump’s,” says state Rep. Jim Walsh, R-Aberdeen. “Ferguson is trying to shift blame. Don’t let him.”

Meanwhile, Ferguson left the door open to Washington potentially withholding federal income tax collections in response to the Trump administration. California Gov. Gavin Newsom suggested in June that his state could take that step. “I don’t want to get too specific at this time, but what I’ll say is that there are lots of conversations about different options the state of Washington can take to deal with the chaos from the Trump administration,” says Ferguson.

Ferguson is scheduled to meet with the Northwest Seaport Alliance today, where the impact of tariffs will likely be on the agenda. The alliance, which oversees the ports of Seattle and Tacoma, has been dealing with a whipsaw of imports and exports in recent months.

“That uncertainty is not good for business,” says Port of Seattle Commissioner Ryan Calkins. “It’s not good for our ports, it’s not good for our state, our workers, or our people.”

The state’s next revenue forecast is due out later this month. It could indicate if Trump’s policies are having immediate impacts on Washington’s economy and color how lawmakers approach the 2026 session beginning in January.

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